Sabermetric Buy-Lows and Sell-Highs-Starting Pitchers
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At this point in the season, trading for the right players and trading away the right players can make all the difference. Sure seeing a solid pitcher with an ERA over 4.00 may not seem like a desirable “buy-low” move. However, looking at the Sabermetric Pitching Index lets us track those pitchers who’s ability could be a lot better than their statistics at the moment.
With that in mind, and using Sabermetric stats like ERC and DIPS, here are a few pitchers with a currently high ERA that you will want to target ASAP, before the level back to their dominant selves. Also, We’ll give you some guys who may seem like excellent pick-ups or trade targets, that soon may have the floor drop beneath them.
BUY LOW
Brandon Morrow currently has an ERA of 5.63, and although he has not gotten right since we last spoke about him, his Sabers indicate that better times are ahead. His ERC and DIPS are both considerably lower at 4.12 and 2.85 respectively, and with a K/9 rate of 10.93, he makes for a great buy-low candidate. Even better, see if someone would “throw him in” as part of another deal. Fantasy owners see that 5.63 ERA, and get very nervous. We see it, and get excited.
Rookie Mike Leake has the talent to be an excellent pitcher in the big leagues and so far he has shown that potential with his 6-2 record. His ERA is a tad high at 4.06, but slightly lower peripheral numbers in a 3.93 ERC and a 3.89 DIPS tells us that he should continue to put himself in solid situations. In his last two starts, he has gone 8.0 IPs both times, walked one batter in each game, and totaled 11 Ks. He gave up two runs to the Cubs and none to the Giants. Before those two starts his ERA was 5.03, and in ten days shaved nearly a full run off his line, a line that will continue to head south in terms of ERA. Shockingly, Leake could be scooped up in about 70-80% of leagues out there. Timing is running out on this steal.
SELL HIGH
Johnny Cueto has returned from the DL like a man on a mission. Eight starts, seven being Quality Starts, and a 4-2 record have some owners thrilled. However, he could be getting some luck his way, as his peripheral stats aren’t proving that he’ll continue this pace. Sure the ERA and WHIP at 1.68 and 1.01 seem too good to be true, and that is because, they are. His DIPS is at 3.61 and his ERC is 2.14 so expect Cueto to come back down to earth. He isn’t a reliable K-machine, and with a 6.04 K/9, we don’t recommend targeting him, and we do recommend selling high on him quickly.
Josh Collmenter is a nice fantasy pitcher to look at on paper at first glance. Yet, the rookie is about to level out and hit a wall. The two best pieces of evidence for that prediction is the fact his K/9 is microscopic at 5.7, and his DIPS is 3.56. So if you are hovering over the “add” button when looking his stats, think again, and pick up Mike Leake.
Get more BUY LOW and SELL HIGH pitchers at www.fantasyphenoms.com!
Adam has worked in the local news industry for the past two decades in Westchester County and the broader Hudson Valley. Read more from Adam’s author bio here.